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Prediction for CME (2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-01T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37629/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright core mostly on the right side of the CME. The source is a large L-shaped filament eruption stretching from ~S35W10 to ~S15E40 centered around ~S35E20 starting around 2025-03-01T17:00Z. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA, GOES SUVI, and STEREO A EUVI 304. Dimming, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO/AIA 193. --- Arrival Notes: Characterized by a slow rise in Bt from around 4nT to a peak of 8.9nT at 2025-03-05T22:23Z. Bz largely swings between northward and southward throughout the signature, briefly sustaining southward around -7.5nT from 2025-03-05T19:38Z-2025-03-05T21:58Z. An small sustained increase in wind speed from around 460km/s to 490km/s is observed alongside an initial temperature and density bump. Speed and temperature slowly decrease as the signature plays out and density slowly increases. This is likely the expected glancing blow of CME 2025-03-01T18:24Z, anticipated at L1 at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (+- 7 hours).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-04T17:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-04T19:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-03-02T01:25Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 550
Longitude (deg): 017E
Latitude (deg): 34S
Half-angular width (deg): 31

Notes: Halfway-house early fit using KW and MTL's Lasco C2 and STEREO A COR2 fits. These differ little, aiding confidence, although CME itself is a glancing blow and very marginal for being a complete miss.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence and Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 62.72 hour(s)
Difference: -1.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-03-02T02:27Z

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